Jill Stein, Chase Oliver Could Cost Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania: Poll

Third-party candidates could affect Kamala Harris’ chances in Pennsylvania, according to new polling.
With 19 Electoral College votes, the battleground state is a critical one that a candidate needs to win in the presidential race. But a new poll suggests Harris may face an obstacle to winning there: third-party candidates Jill Stein and Chase Oliver.
A new poll conducted by Wick between August 27 and 29 shows Harris and Donald Trump are tied in a head-to-head matchup, with 49 percent each. However, when third-party candidates are included the former president leads, with 48 percent to Harris’ 47 percent.
Both the Green Party’s Stein and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver are polling at 1 percent each.
Newsweek has contacted via email the Harris campaign and the Stein and Oliver campaigns for comment.
A poll in Pennsylvania by Cygnal, conducted between August 14 and 15, showed a similar result, with Harris leading Trump by 1 point in a head-to-head race, while Trump led by 1 point when third-party candidates were included. In the poll, Stein polled at 2 percent, while Robert F. Kennedy polled at 5 percent. However, Kennedy will no longer be on the state’s ballot because he withdrew from the presidential race later in August.
However, other polls have shown that the presence of third-party candidates on the ballot in Pennsylvania helps Harris, including the most recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, conducted between August 23 and 26. It shows Harris’ lead over Trump increases from 3 to 5 points among likely voters when third-party candidates are included, with Stein and Oliver polling at 1 point each.
Meanwhile, a Focaldata poll from August 16 shows that in a head-to-head matchup, Harris and Trump are tied, while Harris leads by 1 point when third-party candidates, including Kennedy, are on the ballot.
Pennsylvania is expected to see a tight race in November, with Harris currently leading by 1.2 points statewide, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Meanwhile, polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model shows Pennsylvania is most likely to be the tipping-point state in this election, giving the Electoral College’s winner the necessary 270th vote.
However, although Harris is in the lead, she may still not win in November if she fails to win over voters older than 65, who make up just under 20 percent of the population in Pennsylvania, according to pollster and Democratic political strategist Celinda Lake.
“It is a little bit more conservative than most of the polls that were seeing, but I think Pennsylvania is really tight, and there’s other battleground states that have been moving in Harris’ direction. This has been one that is a little more resistant,” Lake told the 2Way podcast.
“Pennsylvania is the oldest of the battleground states…so that age distribution works against Harris,” she said.
Polls, including the most recent survey by Wick, show that in the state Harris is leading among independents, Generation Z voters, Hispanic people and college-educated voters. Meanwhile, Trump is leading among those over 65, non-college-educated voters and white voters.
Given Pennsylvania’s vital role in this election, both candidates are targeting the state, with Harris and Biden expected to attend a Labor Day parade in Pittsburgh. It will be the first time the two have shared a speaking slot on the political stage together since Biden ended his reelection campaign in July, making Harris the party’s candidate.
Their visit follows an appearance by Trump in the state this past Friday, when he visited Johnstown, just 75 miles from where he was shot at during a rally on July 13 in Butler. One person was killed and two others injured, while Trump was hit in the ear.
Pennsylvania has voted Democrat in seven of the past eight presidential elections, going for the Republican candidate only in 2016, when Trump won by a narrow margin of 0.7 percent.